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It is, of course, far too early to do anything more than speculate. But common sense says that there must be consequences for business and for the European economy from the attacks in Paris that appear to have added a whole new dimension to the threat from Islamic State. The first-round impacts, such as a likely hit to tourism and consumer spending (think of all those Christmas markets that make such juicy soft targets) are the most obvious and likely to be the most short-lived. There was, after all, no discernible lasting economic impact from the attacks on the magazine Charlie Hebdo earlier this year. But there are obvious imponderables that could have huge, if indirect, impacts, most of them through the policy channel. Importantly, not all of them are negative. |
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沙发#
发布于:2015-11-18 21:08
巴黎遭遇的恐怖主义袭击,让人们对“伊斯兰国”这个恐怖组织有了全新认识。常识告诉我们,此次袭击必定会对整个欧洲的经济产生重大影响。当然,我们现在还只能做出预估,其他一切都为时尚早。在众多影响之中,首当其冲的可能就是旅游业和消费者支出。这些方面受到的打击最为明显,但其持续时间也可能最短。毕竟,想想看,《查理周刊》(Charlie Hebdo)今年1月遭受袭击之后,看起来也并没有对法国经济产生持续影响。但要说完全没有影响又是肯定不可能的,最无法具体估量的影响在于政策制定方面。这种影响可能是间接的,但却又具有深远意义。值得一提的是,恐怖袭击带来的影响可能很深远,但却未必都是负面的。
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板凳#
发布于:2015-11-18 21:09
1. Surveillance is likely to increase.
公共监控级别可能提升 |
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地板#
发布于:2015-11-18 21:10
The European debate on surveillance is likely to lurch sharply in favor of snooping, as voters put more emphasis on security and less on concealing their secret gambling habits, infidelity and tax evasion. Attacks as sophisticated and coordinated as these require a lot of advance planning and communication, and it seems hardly credible that a large part of that would not have been electronic.
几乎可以肯定,类似巴黎恐怖袭击这样的行动,必定需要缜密的预谋和较强的协调沟通,这其中大部分预谋都会利用到电子通信技术。因此,此次事件之后,欧洲舆论对于政府监控的争论将明显倾向于支持,因为选民将更加重视安全,而降低对隐瞒赌 博、不 忠和逃税等问题的关注。 |
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4楼#
发布于:2015-11-18 21:10
It doesn’t necessarily follow that more surveillance will stop this kind of
attack—France only recently passed a law with the most far-reaching snooping powers in Europe, and it doesn’t seem to have done much good—but the attacks are a big embarrassment for all those, notably Apple AAPL -2.90% CEO Tim Cook, who argue that the privacy of individuals’ communications is sacrosanct. 但我们必须清楚,即使今后加强监控,也未必能禁绝这类袭击。事实上,法国最近刚刚通过了一项反恐法案,已经采取了欧洲最为强力的监控措施,但看起来并没什么作用。这次袭击也让支持保护隐私的人倍感尴尬,其中甚至包括苹果公司CEO蒂姆·库克,他曾表示个人通讯隐私权神圣不可侵犯。 |
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5楼#
发布于:2015-11-18 21:11
The U.K. two weeks ago re-introduced a watered-down bill of its notorious
“Snooper’s Charter”, which for the first time explicitly allows police to hack into computers, and collect large volumes of personal communications data. It also legally obliges telecoms and data companies to help police operations to bypass encryption. The bill now faces a much easier passage through parliament, and may even be beefed up again in reaction to the attacks. 而在英国,两周前,英国内阁以臭名昭著的“窃听者宪章”(Snooper’s Charter)为蓝本重新提出了类似草案。该法案不仅首次明确允许警方使用黑客手段进入公民电脑系统,收集大量私人通信数据,还以法律形式要求电信公司和数据供应商,协助警方获取加密信息。可以想见,此次巴黎恐怖袭击之后,该法案在英国国会获得通过的可能性大大增强,监控手段甚至可能进一步强化。 |
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6楼#
发布于:2015-11-18 21:12
今天就更这些了
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7楼#
发布于:2015-11-19 06:46
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8楼#
发布于:2015-11-19 12:00
为啥都是英文?
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9楼#
发布于:2015-11-19 21:17
2. Europe’s migrant policy is toast.
欧洲移民政策可能完蛋 |
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